And the ending sucks!
Another year with Scott Frost kicks off on a different continent but with the same themes: subpar special teams, missed kicks, poor fundamentals, baffling coaching decisions, and turnovers late in the game; all culminating in a loss by what can only be described as the Frost Margin: 8 points or less. A loss wherein there were just a few routine plays that needed to go the other way to cement victory. Where after the first two drives of each half it seems the other team figures out everything the Huskers are trying to run and the offense can do absolutely nothing. Where the defense plays fairly well, especially when one considers how much time they have to spend on the field- except, of course, for a couple of 3rd and forevers, usually late in the game, usually when the other team is still somehow losing and in need of a clutch drive.
Did it feel good to not get blown out by a third of the schedule last year? Sure. An all time NCAA record for rushing yards in a single game (which was fortunately broken again the following week) was not set against Nebraska and in the last few years, their games against some of their top ranked opponents have ended in respectable scorelines. Whether those games were always beyond reach based on the talent level of the players involved, regardless of coaching, is impossible to say. However, under his command, Nebraska football has been “in” more games than with previous coaches. They sure have not won as many, but the margin is technically closer. But in this lies the paradox of the Frost Margin, which not only applies to the final score, but the actual play on the field. Nebraska always plays just short of the level of their competition, whether it is a CFP bound Michigan or a 5-7 Illinois. Against Michigan that feels good, hope inducing even. Against Illinois, it does not. They simultaneously appear to be a different team every week yet somehow still the same one. How could a team play so close against Oklahoma yet blow such a lead against a middling Iowa? Every game feels within the Huskers’ grasp, yet inexplicably every game slips through their fingers due to self-sabotage. As the lyrics go, “Self-inflicted wounds, your gift- impeccable aim.” Each mistake happens at the exact wrong time under this iteration of Nebraska football. And with the Frost Margin, there is absolutely no room for error.
Nebraska always plays just short of the level of their competition, whether it is a CFP bound Michigan or a 5-7 Illinois.
Each game is a drama in four acts, every snap a scene. However, you never know if a play is going to have dire consequences or be a moot point until the very end; a catastrophe or the greatest thing that has ever happened. That is the beauty of the game of football, indeed of all sport. The weight of every scene can only to be determined in hindsight. Some are usually fairly clear. A holding call on 2nd and 2 at midfield halfway through the first quarter? Almost always inconsequential. Multiple turnovers in the 4th quarter after a blown lead? Almost certainly devastating. The weight of errors certainly compounds as time winds down, but watershed moments are almost impossible to determine in the midst of watching a game.
For example: a redzone INT on a team’s first possession. If that same QB comes back out and throws for 4 TDs on the day, nobody even thinks about that pick. But if that game ends in a loss by a Frost Margin, that pick is everything. Even if this hypothetical team had gotten just a field goal from that first drive, every coaching decision later in that game is different with 3 more points in hand. Every play call, every read by the QB. The mindset going into a two minute drill in a tie game is much different than a two minute drill down by 3. And so far, just about every game under Frost has excruciatingly had two or three of those moments where a mistake or missed opportunity turned out to be a death blow. Coinciding with these are moments that seem to be absolute miracles and lead to the Huskers being in the game late, but they inevitably have just enough mistakes that the score ends with them narrowly on the losing side.
They cannot continue to be absolutely horrific in clutch moments. Statistically it does not feel possible that they could be. If every game was graded as the average of every play ran, they’d probably have a D+/C-, with their opponents always making at least a C+. 90% of their plays are fine. B’s and low A’s, and sprinkle in some, or just a few too many, C’s. Every once in a while they pull off a 46 yard TD run. Or the defense forces a three and out deep in the opponent’s own half of the field. Those plays are great; 100/100. However, in their weighted midterms and finals, IE plays that should result in points on offense, turnovers on defense, or just routine plays late in games to maintain a winning edge, they make too many absolute 0’s. It is never just a missed throw to fail a third down conversion, but an interception to essentially give the other team at least 3 points. Blocked punts, missed field goals, dropped passes, sacks; all of it. That drags down their entire grade to the point of not necessarily failing outright, but certainly not passing, nearly every single week.
The most glaring issue is kicks. Extra points and field goals need to be made at a higher rate. The number of points left on the field during last year’s campaign due to missed kicks is absurd. The punting has been inconsistent at best as well. Not having a dedicated special teams coordinator at a D1 program until this season is nigh on unforgivable. Special teams are a third of the game. And consistently poor execution in that third will result in losing games that otherwise could have been won. Oklahoma last year, for example. Just ask Nick Saban or Jim Harbaugh how slip ups on special teams can cost even a great team in tight moments. Nebraska is not good, let alone good enough to be able to miss points that should be all but guaranteed.
Other than that it is almost hard to describe how to fix the errors this team consistently makes. It is confusing because it is so crystal clear. That is the enigma of the Frost Margin. Turnovers? No duh- those are always bad. Dropped passes? Never good. False start penalties where the tackle just falls over? Drive killers and fodder for Sports Center’s Not Top Ten. Giving up first downs when the opponent has a 3rd and 20+? That should never happen. These are all basic, obvious things that, if not done properly, would sink almost any team, or at a minimum cost them a couple of games a year. And yet one or a combination of these errors is made every week at the absolute worst times in the game. No turnovers? Defense cannot make a stop late. Kicker actually hitting field goals and extra points? Turnovers and penalties abound. Outside of a handful of games against very clearly inferior competition, Nebraska has yet to play a full four quarters cleanly under Frost. Of course it is not reasonable to expect that a team wins every quarter of every game. But good teams can lose quarters without it always being due to horrendously bad plays.
I do not know the true effectiveness of Frost’s system if all is consistently executed well. We have seen glimpses of it, like against Northwestern last year. So the potential to put up big numbers is hypothetically there, even if its likelihood of happening seems to be about as probable as 1000 chimpanzees at typewriters incidentally writing a work of Shakespeare. The issues plaguing this program lie beyond just having a great playbook. Frost could be as much of a genius at drawing up X’s and O’s as Coach Klein of the South Central Louisiana State University Mud Dogs in his prime and it ultimately might not matter. Not when open receivers drop passes that end up in the opposing defense’s hands, or place kickers cannot hit extra points, or the defense allows 39 yard gains on 3rd and 10, or turnovers get made in the red zone, or the team can only score points on the first two drives of each half. Of all these problems, the latter is most concerning. And point to his lack of great play-calling ability. In game adjustments appear to be nonexistent. And if they are there, besides two drives after halftime, Frost is 0-for against every coach he has lined up across from in making them effectively.
It’s one thing to lose every single game one is expected to, as Frost has done. They have never been a successful underdog. This too is frustrating, sure, yet less so. The experts are experts for a reason. But they just lost a season opener as a 12.5 point favorite against a team they hung nearly 60 points on last year. And they lost in the same fashion that they have lost every game, Frost Margin or not, for the last 3 seasons. I could give these other teams credit for playing well (or at least well enough) and rising to the challenge in each game, in each moment that required a great play. But I cannot. I am too self-centered and the evidence does not point support that perspective. If this were the case in only a couple of losses that could be true. Yet this has been a pattern for over a season now. There cannot be a hero that has caused every single loss. The Cornhuskers, whenever the clock reads 0:00, are close but no cigar, almost entirely due to inopportunely bad play on their part, not good play by their adversaries.
The Frost Margin is about as frustrating as it can get for a fan to watch. The team is right there, and he can honestly say every week, after every loss, that they are “this close” to getting over the hump. The losses occur in a way that no Husker fan says to themselves afterwards, “Wow. The other team was clearly just too good for us to have had a chance to win.” Which elicits fans every week to either call for his head on a pike for wasting opportunities or make assurances that just a little more patience is necessary for this program to get it figured out. At this juncture the evidence seems to be in favor of those sharpening their sticks though. “This close” is great, except when that gap is created in the same fashion week after week, regardless of the quality of the opponent. This team is hyperbolic, and I do not mean overblown or exaggerated. They are mathematically so- always approaching the asymptote of victory, but never meeting it.
This team is hyperbolic, and I do not mean overblown or exaggerated. They are mathematically so- always approaching the asymptote of victory, but never meeting it.
Everyone already knew this was a do or die year for Frost at Nebraska. For all Husker fans, they want so desperately for the prodigal son to work out. But after a loss like this, even going bowling might not be enough to save his job this season. If this cocktail keeps getting mixed the same way every week, and the Frost Margin continues to set the record for one score losses, it is hard to see how Trev Alberts can justify keeping him on for another year for “stability’s sake.” Because right now, the only thing stable about the Nebraska Cornhusker football program is their ability to lose by one score. Bring in some sports psychologists, or penguins into the locker room, or shave your head Scott; whatever. Clearly something different has to be done. Something to make the coaches feel capable of calling the right plays. Something to get the players’ heads in the right spot to believe they are capable of making those plays. Because I refuse to believe there is not enough talent in this program to play better than they are. It just needs to be unlocked.